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China hits the brakes on small-bag fertilizer exports!
Starting midnight July 25, all fertilizers in <10 kg bags are barred from customs inspection—effectively freezing overseas sales of mini-pack urea, phosphate, potash and blends. Beijing’s move comes after a jaw-dropping surge in NP-compound shipments: June alone saw 761 k tonnes sail out, pushing H1 exports to 2.18 million tonnes—up nearly 390 % YoY. Traders scramble as policy whiplash grips the global fertilizer market.
1. So in rainfed climates like Australia – it’s all about rainfall and timing of the crop – however the first application of urea, nearly always occurs if sufficient rain occurs during the growing season- by the time you realise it’s a drought it’s to late. A good spring usually means another application.
2. in the tropics, rice etc – it’s more to do with the price of the crop- they simply don’t apply – they are scared of not getting there money back- and they know that yield drops but not to zero
Aug Tpa NH3 set at $487 cfr, up $70 on July
I hear the following bagged WS SOP prices:
Egypt fob – $615-640/t
Europe fob – €675-700/t
Taiwan fob – $640/t for Aug-Sep shipment
Mexico – $680-720/t cfr
Are these numbers in line with what you are seeing?
Friday, 25 July 2025 (Acerto)
Urea
Nigeria : Dangote has awarded one cargo of 30,000t granular urea in the mid-high $460s/t FOB Lekki in its 23 July tender for the export of two cargoes of 30,000t granular urea each, with laycans 14-17 August and 19-22 August, respectively.
A freight enquiry has emerged for a handysize vessel from Lekki to Argentina, with laycan 14-17 August.
In its previous tender held on 11 July, the producer sold two 30,000t granular cargoes at $465/t and at $480/t FOB Lekki for loading 4-7 August and 12-15 August, respectively.
Hey Matt,
Here is what I've been hearing so far:
General: market pretty tight with Russian plants on turnarounds and strong demand for agricultural-grade urea from markets such as India who paid $95/t more this time. US mkt firm at Nola waiting news on Russian tariffs/sanctions.
Baltic: was hearing around $460-480/t fob on netbacks to Brazil/Mexico.
Europe: did you hear of any EU producers offering this week? Heard in the low $500s/t fca ex-works in Germany and high $500s/t fca ex-works in France.
China: AGU offers still at floor price of $445/t fob but mkt wary high price and long shipment time.
East Asia: mkt stable at $420-460/t cfr given the lack of interest but buyers should emerge in August.
Southeast Asia: hearing lower offers of Vietnamese at around $500/t fob this week up to $520/t fob. Indonesia not exporting but they sold agri-grade prills this week and hear they may get export quotas in August for AGU.
India: some suggesting around $475-515/t cfr is where the market is this week.
Brazil: not sure yet but was firm last week with Chinese around $500+ cfr and Russian higher at up to $570-580/t cfr.
Chat tomorrow. Shout if you'd prefer a call or WhatsApp.
Thanks,
Suzie
Morning. After IPL tender announcement y'day, Urea paper values jumped higher – Aug AG traded to $490, Brazil offers moved nearer $500cfr (Aug traded $460 early on), while Aug Nola traded $455. DAP also firmed $20+/- on Aug/Sep.
AG
Jul $465//$477
Aug $488//$500
Sep $465//$490
Q4 $435//$465
Cfr Brazil
Jul $450//$465
Aug $480//$500 -traded $460
Sep $470//$490
Oct $450//$485
Egypt
July $475//$490
Aug $480//$505
Sep $475//$495
Nola
Phys: Aug traded $455
Paper:
Aug $450//$460 – traded $450, $452.50, $453, $455
Sep $450//$460
Q4 $410//$440
Q1 $410//$440
UAN Nola
Aug $265//$300
Sep $255//$300
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Phys: Aug traded $755
Aug $765// $775– traded $757, $770
Sep $765//$775 – traded $755, $765, $770
Q4 $700//$725
Q1 $660//$695
MAP Brazil
Jul $747//$765
Aug $745//$765
Sep $740//$760
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed lower on Wednesday, after soymeal futures slumped on news that China would cut back its hog production, reduce soymeal use and hunt for meal substitutions in feed rations, traders said.
China will reduce the number of breeding sows, control the slaughter weight of hogs and curb new production capacity as part of broader efforts to prevent sharp price drops, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.
CBOT's most-active November soybeans settled down 2-3/4 cents at $10.22-3/4 a bushel.
CBOT's August soymeal futures ended $1.80 lower to settle at $272 per short ton. Most-active December soymeal futures fell $1.20, closing at $285.60 per short ton.
CBOT's August soyoil closed up 0.51 cent at 56.14 cents per pound, while December soyoil futures rose 0.47 cent at 55.86 cents per pound.
Earlier in the session, soybean futures gained support on weakness in the U.S. dollar and hopes that trade deals may boost demand for U.S. exports, traders said.
A U.S.-Japan trade deal, a U.S.-Philippines trade deal, negotiations over a U.S.-European Union deal and U.S.-China talks next week are adding to hopes that President Donald Trump will get foreign buyers to step up U.S. farm goods purchases.
While a decline in U.S. crop ratings on Monday has carried some support over to the soy market, beneficial crop weather has continued to weigh on soy futures.
Some traders said they are closely watching for signs of crop stress from the flurry of rains. Wet or flooded soils can result in soybean plants having root health damage and impact yields, particularly when the plants are filling their pods. Typically, soybean plants begin filling pods in the U.S. Midwest in late July and into August.
-UREA PRICES REACT WITH A BULLISH SENTIMENT ON THE INDIA UREA ANNOUNCEMENT
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE COOLING EXCEPT FOR DAP CFR INDIA WHICH MAY FACE HIGHER PRICES
-POTASH PRICES ARE STAGNATING AND A BEARISH TONE HAS CREPT IN WITH BRAZIL AFFORDABILITY AT STAKE
-AMMONIA MARKETS AWAITING PRICE GUIDANCE FROM THE YARA MOSAIC AUGUST SETTLEMENT
UREA
Following the closing of the India tender which saw 3-timeline extensions, where India secured close to 1.5 million MT well short of the 2 million MT desired, the international market appeared to have gone into hibernation. IPL of India today announced another 2 million MT tender for shipment by September 22nd closing on August 4th with validity to August 8th.
However, demand in Brazil is still subdued, the US is out of season, same as Europe which has impacted Egypt demand and subsequent lowering of prices to around the USD 500 PMT FOB to incite interest. Pupuk Indonesia granular urea tender resulted in one cargo of 45,000 MT placed at USD 482.50 PMT FOB with two more cargoes either committed or about to be committed. Question is where these cargoes will end up with Australia being an alternative as a result of heavy rains falling in key agriculture areas.
All eyes are on China and what they will do with the additional 1 million MT of urea allocated for exports in the period July to October for a total of 3 million MT – with India still a prohibited market. To date this year China has exported a paltry 77,000 MT with June exports of 66,000 MT. The cumulative exports over the past three years in the same period have been 624,000 MT and if looking at the same figure from 2022, the number is 2 million MT. In other words, the impact of China not having taken part in exports with any meaningful volume in 2025, and not engaged with India tenders, have had a substantial impact on prices. Conversely, if China floods the market with 3 million MT between July and October, the impact on prices will have a reverse impact. Although there are some freight inquiries for Chinese urea to Brazil and other destinations, export activity still is subdued. Iranian producers placed around 100,000 MT of granular urea last week at prices between USD 431-435 PMT FOB, the latter now being the official export price. More products seem to be offered. Iranian products are a large supplier to the Brazilian market thus keeping a cap on increased prices in Brazil.
Another issue of concern is what will happen to Russian urea now that Europe has implemented import restrictions and with the Trump administration considering imposing tariffs resulting in full ban on Russian urea for the US market. Russia has been responsible for about 1/3 of all urea imports to the US with imports for the July-June fertilizer years over the past three years showing total imports to the US of between 4.9-5.6 million short tons. However, with the announcement of another India urea tender, Russian urea will find an outlet in India for sure!
In summary, the market is in a summer holiday mood, but with India again in the market for 2 million MT, traders will position themselves although India is not always a guarantor for higher prices. Exciting times yet again!
PHOSPHATES
While availability remained tight and the immediate outlook for the market remained relatively bullish, DAP and MAP prices benchmarks were more stable this week amid slower spot activity and increasing resistance among some buyers, with Brazil MAP prices actually decreasing slightly. MAP and NP prices to Brazil have seen limited declines this week after a month of stalled prices on limited demand.
While some sources indicate a trader sold as much as 10,000t MAP to Brazil at $755pt cfr, this was previously offered at $765-770pt cfr, and a supplier indicated it is offering at $750pt cfr now for further Brazil activity.
A number of key suppliers still indicate limited availability and are offering at $760-765pt cfr, awaiting a return to higher demand. The Brazil MAP price had held at $755pt cfr for the previous four weeks.
Brazil imported 1.66Mt DAP/MAP/NP/NPK/TSP/SSP in June, a 63% jump from 1.02Mt in the same month of 2024, according to updated data from Trade Data Monitor (TDM). Combined phosphate fertiliser imports in January-June reached 6.28Mt, up 22% yr-on-yr and just below the H1 record in 2022 at 6.38Mt. The latest data show that MAP imports in the six-month period were largely flat while TSP, SSP and NP imports skyrocketed.
India on the other hand is facing an uphill battle on DAP pricing and it appears now that traders have positioned themselves for CFR prices around the USD 835 PMT mark although the latest confirmed sale is around the USD 815 PMT CFR level.
Unconfirmed reports suggest EABC has now awarded its 16 July tender for 60,000t DAP for 25-30 July loading to Samsung ex-China at $787pt fob.
The price was just a slight rise from EABC’s award last week on its 7 July round for 70,000t DAP for 15-20 July loading at $784.79pt fob China to Midgulf. EABC had instructed prospective suppliers to target $784pt fob or lower in the 16 July round.
EABC received two further offers in the 16 July round, from Aditya Birla ex-Jordan at $841.80pt fob and from ETG ex-Saudi Arabia at $846.45pt fob.
Chinese exports of DAP and MAP this year to date amounted to 855,916 MT of which 671,916 MT exported in June after restrictions were lifted at the end of May. This is a 65% reduction from last year and a 12-year low.
Bangladesh has come with a tender for processed phosphates closing on August 5th with shipment by September 20th. The tender calls for 200 KT DAP, 250 KT MAP, 250 KT MOP and 20 KT MAP.
POTASH
After months of upward momentum, the potash market is showing signs of a bearish shift. Demand remains weak across most key regions, and global prices were largely unchanged this week. Momentum in the potash market has slowed noticeably, as demand softens across most key regions. This period typically marks a seasonal lull in global activity, and a more bearish sentiment is beginning to take hold. Many in the market believe prices may have reached a ceiling, particularly in Brazil and Southeast Asia. Although China and India settled their long-awaited contracts last month, up from the prior price by $76/t and $65/t respectively, providing a global floor, these deals have yet to translate into significant upward price pressure elsewhere. Still, with China entering its autumn application season and India ramping up Kharif usage, stronger domestic demand in both markets could begin to pull volumes away from other regions in the weeks ahead.
Brazil was in focus this week as a bearish tone continued to weigh on the MOP market. Demand remains sluggish with limited liquidity, as the soybean season nears its end. While the official price range held at $360–370/t CFR, most reported business was closer to $360– 365/t CFR. Several market participants noted that $370/t CFR is no longer achievable given the widespread demand weakness. With prices believed to have reached a ceiling and the corn season still a few weeks away, many expect downward price pressure in the near term. Brazil may be leading the way in the expected global potash price declines, potentially marking the beginning of a broader downward trend in the market. The Southeast Asian MOP market remains stagnant amid the off-season, with Pupuk Indonesia continuing to be the focal point. After several rounds of negotiations, offers around $383/t CFR from some producers are expected to be accepted by Pupuk, although no final agreement has been reached. This price level is close to Pupuk Indonesia’s initial counterbid of $375/t CFR, which was previously rejected by producers. Weak demand has prompted producers to consider lowering prices than the initial offers of $410–420/t CFR for sMOP. The market is awaiting the conclusion of this deal for a clearer price direction, with activity expected to pick up during the August–September season.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices held steady-to-firm again this week as another handful of fresh spot deals emerged both east and west of Suez, with the supply-demand balance still oriented to the tighter side ahead of the August Tampa settlement.
Prices should, at the very least, remain stable heading into August, with increases possible on both sides of the Suez in light of ongoing bullish sentiment.
Stein Chingen Haugan
Managing Director
fertiMetrics pte ltd
Mobile / Whats App: +65 8328 7681 – Singapore
Email: stein@fertimetrics.com
Skype: steinhaugan1955
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www.fertimetrics.com
Council Member World Agriculture Forum
The port inventory is so high, and exports are so slow.
There hasn’t been much change in the port inventory since July.
It is anticipated that the port will handle fewer than 20,000 units next week.
At this pace struggle to export all quota Mts
*china Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief 2025-7-25
❤ Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market remained stable, with price range reference at 2340-2345 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference prices unchanged from the previous trading day. A refinery’s sales tender price increased by 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, but failed to boost market sentiment. Spot trading activity in the market was low, with the overall market showing sideways consolidation. Regarding USD-denominated resources, Qatar’s spot tender price was heard to be around FOB $263/ton. Overall, market sentiment remains oscillating and weak. In the absence of market guidance, today’s spot market is expected to maintain stable operation.
❤ Urea: Yesterday, the domestic urea market showed overall stalemate at high levels, with some high prices beginning to loosen due to insufficient supporting momentum. Inventory holders’ concerns about future demand intensified, leading to active selling with quotes gradually falling below factory prices. Mainstream regional market prices showed significant price inversion. Considering the current intensified market stalemate atmosphere, some companies may offer discounts to move inventory.
❤ Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the domestic synthetic ammonia market maintained an upward trend. Supply tightening and demand recovery resonated together, with market supply remaining tight. Northern potential maintenance plans further strengthened bullish sentiment, with manufacturers maintaining firm upward pricing. However, some downstream companies hold sufficient inventory and have slowed purchasing pace, constraining price upside. Today’s market is expected to show regional adjustment patterns.
❤ Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium chloride market continued its steady trend, with companies having decent sales and mostly executing pending deliveries. With downstream compound fertilizer companies showing good acceptance, there are intentions to maintain prices and explore increases. However, downstream buyers still mainly purchase based on immediate needs and resist high prices. The market lacks positive stimulus in the short term, so ammonium chloride prices remain stable.
❤ Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, the domestic ammonium sulfate market corrected downward from high levels, with actual negotiations appearing somewhat stagnant. Currently, international terminal inventory levels are adequate, and low buying interest constrains the negotiation atmosphere. However, India’s renewed urea tender yesterday provided positive market support, with focus on terminal performance.
❤ Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market remained basically stable, with only individual companies flexibly adjusting prices based on their own sales situations. From current supply and demand perspectives, the market’s main tone remains weak. Without positive guidance in the short term, the market continues under pressure.
❤ Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market had decent inquiry atmosphere, with factories mostly not accepting orders or quoting prices temporarily, while traders quoted slightly higher prices for actual negotiations. Downstream compound fertilizer factories are in the autumn fertilizer pre-order stage, with plant operating rates maintaining slight increases. Raw material procurement continues with supplementary orders, though there’s caution about chasing higher prices. However, with MAP supply remaining tight overall and demand continuing to follow, prices may still have potential for slight upward exploration. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained stable, with 64% ex-factory prices in Hubei region maintaining at 3800-3850 yuan/ton, with actual orders under negotiation. Both supply and demand sides showed insufficient trading willingness, with downstream only maintaining moderate restocking as needed. Market sentiment is mainly cautious and wait-and-see, with short-term market continuation of oscillating consolidation.
❤ Potash Fertilizer: The domestic potash fertilizer market trend remained stable, with major potash companies still focused on offering discounts to move inventory, with daily shipment volumes being quite evident, ensuring downstream factory demand. Potassium sulfate manufacturers maintain low plant operating rates, with Mannheim 52% powder ex-factory prices mostly at 3900-4000 yuan/ton, but in a state of having prices but no market.
❤ Compound Fertilizer:* Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market showed narrow consolidation. Major upstream raw materials remained stable with some narrow fluctuations, with cost support for the market unchanged. Companies continue focusing on autumn fertilizer pre-orders, with adjustment pace somewhat slowing. Short-term compound fertilizer market is expected to trend toward overall stability, with some improvement in sales potentially boosted by policy incentives.
Hi Phil, this is what I have so far this week:
CHINA
– $270-280/tonne CFR discussed
INDONESIA
– Nothing new this week. mid-$270s last heard
MIDDLE EAST
– Muntajat- $263 award heard. Trammo linked
MED/B.SEA/AFRICA
– $260 CFR mainstream Med cargoes
– Swakop 35KT tender Aug del awarded. ABGT linked
– Foskor on maintenance
AMERICAS
– Vancouver now at $250 FOB
– Mosaic bought in the high-$270s CFR
– $250-260 FOB USG
Morning. Thin activity across Int'l paper yday, while Nola paper saw Aug/Sep Urea hold value in upper-$430s.
AG
Jul $460//$475
Aug $450//$465
Sep $445//$465
Q4 $415//$440
Cfr Brazil
Jul $450//$465
Aug $450//$465
Sep $445//$465
Egypt
July $473//$490
Aug $465//$480
Sep $455//$480
Nola
Phys: July traded $430
Paper:
Jul $423//$430
Aug $435//$440 – traded $438
Sep $437//$440 – traded $437
Q4 $410//$430
Q1 $410//$430
UAN Nola
Jul $355//$380
Aug $265//$300
Sep $255//$300
Oct $250//$300
DAP Nola
Jul $720//$735
Aug $750// $760
Sep $748//$755 – traded $750
Q3 $745//$755
Q4 $700//$715
Q1 $660//$680
MAP Brazil
Jul $750//$770
Aug $745//$765
Sep $740//$765
Here’s the translation of the Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report for July 24, 2025:
*Longzhong Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report 2025-7-24
❤Sulfur: Yesterday, the domestic port spot market remained stable, with prices ranging from 2,340-2,345 yuan/ton, and mainstream reference prices unchanged from the previous trading day. Due to lack of directional market signals and the impact of scattered industry activities, market attention was diverted. Both supply and demand sides remained cautiously observant, waiting for new stimuli, with transaction prices showing no significant changes. Regarding domestic resources, liquid sulfur prices at Shandong refineries rose strongly, with downstream factories actively replenishing inventories at low levels. Limited port spot trading volumes supported prices and reluctant selling, pushing auction prices for spot resources up to 2,340-2,400 yuan/ton. Focus on today’s guidance from domestic large refinery sales tender results.
❤Urea: Yesterday, the domestic urea market weakened. After macroeconomic policy news briefly stimulated market sentiment, spot prices lacked sufficient support due to weak just-in-time demand. Factory new order transactions were light, and urea prices showed a declining trend. Today’s mainstream urea quotations are expected to be stable with slight decreases. Key focus on export changes and downstream purchasing sentiment.
❤Synthetic Ammonia: Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market continued to rise primarily. Supply tightened overall, demand improved, and the market faced general supply shortages. Combined with northern maintenance expectations, ammonia plant prices continued upward, though some downstream companies had sufficient inventories and were cautious in purchasing, limiting the increase. Today’s market is expected to improve slightly.
❤Ammonium Chloride: Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market mainstream remained temporarily stable. Most ammonium chloride companies executed pending deliveries with intentions to support prices and explore increases, but downstream compound fertilizer companies still mainly made just-in-time purchases, resisting high prices. With relatively stable short-term supply and demand, ammonium chloride prices remained primarily stable.
❤Ammonium Sulfate: Yesterday, domestic ammonium sulfate market prices declined due to poor high-price transaction atmosphere. Currently, international terminal inventories are adequate, buyers show strong wait-and-see sentiment, and market negotiation atmosphere is subdued. Constrained by low buying interest, the short-term market is expected to continue with weak oscillating trends.
❤Melamine: Yesterday, the domestic melamine market remained stable with fluctuations. Market buying and selling atmosphere was generally moderate, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was lacking, and companies mainly focused on shipments. Short-term market conditions are expected to continue in stalemate, with prices mainly adjusted flexibly based on shipment conditions.
❤Phosphate Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market trend was stable, with Hubei 55% ex-factory prices around 3,420 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Factories had large pending delivery volumes, mostly suspending orders or limiting order flow, maintaining relatively tight supply conditions. Although downstream compound fertilizers resisted high-priced raw materials, just-in-time supplementary orders for autumn fertilizer production still exist, maintaining firm operations in the short term. Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market consolidated steadily, with Hubei 64% ex-factory prices maintained at 3,800-3,850 yuan/ton, with actual orders maintaining negotiations. Market low-grade supply was sufficient, with 57% prices loosening slightly, while high-grade prices remained firm but with limited actual order follow-up. Overall market trading activity was low, with short-term market showing consolidation trends.
❤Potash Fertilizer: Yesterday, the domestic potash fertilizer market trend was relatively stable. Major potassium chloride production factories had relatively sufficient output, mainly supplying downstream factories directly. Imported potassium chloride continued orderly profit-taking shipments, with relatively limited spot transaction volumes and negotiated pricing. Potassium sulfate manufacturers basically continued previous quotations, but transactions were insufficient at high price levels.
❤Compound Fertilizer*: Yesterday, the domestic compound fertilizer market had limited fluctuations, with some local price increases. Low-end market supply continued to decrease, but due to unstable upstream raw material trends and cautious downstream purchasing, market trading atmosphere was relatively subdued. Short-term compound fertilizer price adjustments are expected to be minimal, with focus on upstream raw material cost changes.