The U.S. dollar generally fell sharply on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to a possible rate cut at the September meeting without commitment.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies, including the yen and the euro, fell 0.96% on the day to 97.66, trading around 98.7 ahead of Powell's speech.
The euro rose 1.06% to $1.1728, hitting a high of $1.1742, the highest since July 28. USD/JPY fell 1.08% to 146.77.
"While the labor market appears to be in equilibrium, this is a strange balance caused by a significant slowdown in both supply and demand for workers," Powell said. "
Powell told international economists and policymakers attending at the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: "If these risks materialize, they could happen quickly. "
Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said Powell's speech was much more dovish than the market expected.
"The dollar is plummeting, the odds of a rate cut in September are rising, and market participants are clearly preparing for more easing to come," he said. "
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September 16-17 policy meeting, up from 72% earlier last Friday. They also raised their expectations for a rate cut by the end of the year from 48 basis points to 54 basis points.
"Now, the burden of proof to prevent a rate cut in September clearly falls on the data," Bank of America economists said in a note on Friday.
After the unexpectedly weak jobs report in July, traders have been raising their expectations for a rate cut in September. Consumer price data shows that tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far.
But higher-than-expected producer price inflation and some other economic data, including a strong August survey of business activity, have softened their views.
Now, labor market data is expected to be the main driver of the Fed's future policy.
"What he really means is that they are preparing for an inflection point in labor market conditions, and the second part of the Fed's mandate has suddenly become more important in determining policy setting," Schamotta said. "
On Friday, the dollar recorded its biggest one-day decline against the euro and yen since the July employment report was released on August 1.
The dollar has also been under pressure from time to time this week after US President Donald Trump said he may seek to fire Fed Governor Cook, which has put pressure on the Fed's independence this week.
Trump said on Friday that he would fire Cook if she did not resign, after calling for Cook's resignation on Wednesday, citing allegations about her holding mortgages in Michigan and Georgia.
Helen Given, a global foreign exchange trader at Money USA, said: "Trump's remarks on Cook …… Concerns about the Fed's independence have been raised again, as it is becoming increasingly clear that the government may want to reshape the Fed as it pleases. "
Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for being too slow in cutting interest rates, and traders expect Powell to appoint a more dovish person to replace Powell when his term ends in May.
In other currencies, the pound rose 0.86% to $1.3527. The Australian dollar rose 1.14% to $0.6492.
On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin rose by 4.10% to $117,035.
Oil prices steadied on Friday amid uncertainty surrounding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with prices gaining on the week for the first time in three weeks.
Brent crude futures settled up 6 cents or 0.09% to $67.73. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled up 14 cents or 0.22% to $63.66.
Both contracts gained more than 1% in the previous session. Brent gained 2.9% this week while WTI rose 1.4%.
"Everyone is waiting for President Trump's next step," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Over the coming days, it seems nothing will happen," he added.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he will see if Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will work together in ending Russia's war in Ukraine.
"There is still uncertainty around the potential ceasefire, the negotiations are not going as quick as the market would have hoped," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
The 3-1/2-year war continued unabated this week as Russia launched an air attack on Thursday near Ukraine's border with the European Union, and Ukraine said it hit a Russian oil refinery and the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia's Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline.
Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia could be suspended for at least five days.
Trump is seeking to arrange a summit between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelenskiy as part of efforts to broker a peace deal for Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there is no agenda for a potential summit between Putin and Zelenskiy, accusing Zelenskiy of saying "no to everything".
The less likely a ceasefire looks, the more likely the risk of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russia, ING analysts said in a client note on Friday.
Meanwhile, U.S. and European planners have presented military options to their national security advisers after the first in-person meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Estonia is ready to participate in a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine with a force of up to one battalion, the Baltic country's Prime Minister Kristen Michal said at a press conference with his Finnish counterpart in Tallinn on Friday.
Putin demanded that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce NATO ambitions and keep Western troops out of the country, sources told Reuters.
Trump pledged to protect Ukraine under any war-ending deal and Zelenskiy dismissed the idea of withdrawing from internationally recognised Ukrainian land.
LARGER THAN EXPECTED FALL IN US OIL STOCKS
Oil prices were also supported by a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. crude stockpiles in the past week, indicating strong demand.
Stocks fell by 6 million barrels in the week ended August 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a draw of 1.8 million barrels.
Meanwhile, U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), opens new tab said in its closely followed report on Friday.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 538 in the week to August 22, the lowest since mid-July.
Weak economic data from Germany on Friday partially offset the stocks draw, showing that Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.3%, opens new tab in the second quarter, raising concerns over oil demand.
Investors were also looking to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming for signals of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday pointed to a possible interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting next month but stopped short of committing to it, in remarks acknowledging both the growing risks to the job market and the ongoing threat of higher inflation.
Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand, potentially boosting prices.
Traders' quotes on August 24
Nitrogen Fertilizer 1
Pope 1525
Boaoyuan 1730
Chitanifeng 1550
Longhua 1560
Golden Bag 450
Luan Large Particles 1780
Tianze Large Particles 1760
Large Coal Particles in Texas 1860
Phosphorus fertilizer 2
Three rings 57% brown🎉🎉🎉
(Hebei. Shandong has advantages)
Three rings in Yunnan province are 64% brown
Cloud skyline 64% yellow 3 840
The Three Rings of the Earth Clouds 64% brown 3880
HONG KONG 53% White Bag 3320 "Fields Trolley" Yellow, Brown
Earth Cloud Sky 15-42-0 Ammonium Dioxide 3470
Earth Cloud Tian 15-39-8 Fertilizer 3730
Xiangfeng 53% brown is a single proposition
Third ring waste recovery 17-30 – 6
Third Ring Fertilizer 15-30 – 10
Hongfu is 57% yellow (Honfu has an advantage)
Potash 3
Jining Volvo Agricultural Package 60% Potash
Tianjin Port Meisheng Crystal Potash 3650 (50 kg)
Port of Yantai Meisheng Coral Potash 3510 (50 kg)
Yantai Port Meisheng Crystal Potash 3520 tonnage package
Small bags of potash from Belarus and Russia for Chinese farmers in Hebei region 3600-3630 are delivered
50 kg of Russian potash in Manzhouli Xushui station platform 3500 is expected to arrive next month 10th
# China Phosphoric Acid Export Statistics – July 2025
## By Trading Partner
|Trading Partner |Export Quantity (tons)|Export Value (USD)|Unit Price (USD/ton)|
|—————-|———————-|——————|——————–|
|Chile |1.00 |1,335 |1,335.00 |
|Oman |216.00 |40,716 |188.50 |
|Bangladesh |27.00 |5,508 |204.00 |
|Angola |1,500.00 |220,000 |146.67 |
|Bangladesh |1,243.00 |1,990,733 |179.05 |
|Papua New Guinea|130.00 |22,176 |170.58 |
|Brazil |120,380.00 |19,407,169 |160.62 |
|Panama |600.00 |122,692 |204.49 |
|North Korea |40.05 |6,008 |150.01 |
|Germany |103.83 |1,097,323 |10,558.36 |
|Russia |0.03 |349 |13,423.08 |
|Ecuador |6,856.00 |1,142,705 |166.67 |
|Philippines |52,700.00 |8,135,416 |154.37 |
|Fiji |20,550.00 |3,313,104 |161.22 |
|Finland |2,033.92 |353,902 |174.00 |
|Congo |12,747.56 |1,951,427 |153.08 |
|Cuba |20,000.00 |2,800,000 |140.00 |
|South Korea |19,664.75 |3,208,642 |164.84 |
|Kazakhstan |724.00 |122,108 |168.66 |
|Netherlands |10,301.25 |1,860,491 |180.61 |
|Honduras |96.00 |16,320 |170.00 |
|Amazon Total |5,000.00 |800,000 |160.00 |
|Canada |500.00 |93,414 |186.83 |
|Cambodia |20,088.81 |3,111,018 |155.02 |
|Kenya |64.00 |9,396 |174.94 |
|Lithuania |37,916.00 |5,340,150 |140.84 |
|Libya |64.00 |8,750 |136.60 |
|Romania |83,800.00 |14,359,736 |171.36 |
|Malaysia |42,749.26 |5,653,685 |132.25 |
|Mauritius |108.00 |23,193 |214.75 |
|Mongolia |602.50 |101,442 |168.37 |
|Peru |13,100.00 |2,147,676 |163.94 |
|Myanmar |148,161.55 |24,689,151 |166.63 |
|South Africa |55,000.00 |10,029,404 |182.35 |
|Namibia |14,997.40 |2,414,581 |161.00 |
|Niger |6,407.50 |1,069,760 |166.90 |
|Nigeria |1,707.10 |306,621 |179.62 |
|Japan |616.00 |148,143 |240.49 |
|Saudi Arabia |3,000.00 |521,936 |173.98 |
|Mexico |156.00 |24,944 |159.90 |
|Saudi Arabia |489.00 |81,126 |167.96 |
|Singapore |16,845.00 |2,678,225 |158.99 |
|Somalia |69,319.00 |11,207,126 |162.54 |
|Tanzania |0.15 |324 |2,160.00 |
|Thailand |162.00 |30,780 |190.00 |
|Tunisia |1.00 |2,875 |2,875.00 |
|Ukraine |42,200.00 |5,908,000 |140.00 |
|Uruguay |1,300.00 |174,200 |134.00 |
|New Zealand |48,518.00 |8,040,802 |165.73 |
|Hungary |606.00 |100,040 |165.36 |
|Israel |79.00 |17,665 |223.61 |
|Italy |125.00 |22,625 |181.00 |
|India |51,906.00 |7,922,438 |152.63 |
|Indonesia |86,305.00 |13,214,151 |153.05 |
|United Kingdom |25.00 |3,134 |125.36 |
|Jordan |109.00 |16,509 |151.46 |
|Zambia |83,002.51 |12,511,146 |150.73 |
|Chile |1,000.00 |160,000 |160.00 |
|Vietnam |404.00 |71,256 |176.38 |
|Hong Kong |353.70 |72,396 |204.68 |
|*TOTAL |2,204,865.91 |353,690,931 |160.41 |
## By Trade Method
|Trade Method |Export Quantity (tons)|Export Value (USD)|Unit Price (USD/ton)|
|———————————-|———————-|——————|——————–|
|Bonded warehouse goods |993.53 |198,614 |199.91 |
|Processing with imported materials|105,533.31 |17,547,171 |166.26 |
|Bonded logistics goods |492.70 |94,680 |192.17 |
|General trade |2,097,840.37 |335,848,626 |160.09 |
|TOTAL |2,204,865.91 |353,690,931 |160.41 |
## By Registration Location (Chinese Provinces/Cities)
|Registration Location |Export Quantity (tons)|Export Value (USD)|Unit Price (USD/ton)|
|————————-|———————-|——————|——————–|
|Anhui Province |23,245.94 |3,835,293 |164.99 |
|Beijing |11,800.03 |1,935,549 |164.03 |
|Fujian Province |504,780.36 |83,244,045 |164.91 |
|Guangdong Province |18,369.48 |2,841,430 |154.68 |
|Guangxi Autonomous Region|6,216.08 |1,092,695 |175.79 |
|Guizhou Province |3,387.00 |525,815 |155.25 |
|Hainan Province |117,816.00 |16,812,834 |142.70 |
|Hebei Province |335,862.56 |51,616,372 |153.68 |
|Hubei Province |322,131.54 |51,576,932 |160.11 |
|Hunan Province |30,357.80 |4,617,999 |152.12 |
|Jiangsu Province |180,618.48 |29,763,304 |164.79 |
|Jiangxi Province |18,307.93 |2,994,434 |163.56 |
|Liaoning Province |726.00 |127,565 |175.71 |
|Shandong Province |196,254.80 |31,245,902 |159.21 |
|Shanxi Province |100.00 |20,400 |204.00 |
|Shanghai |36,771.01 |5,619,650 |152.83 |
|Sichuan Province |32,636.25 |4,944,533 |148.44 |
|Tianjin |25,709.29 |4,485,903 |174.49 |
|Yunnan Province |256,417.57 |43,496,358 |169.63 |
|Zhejiang Province |67,775.80 |11,113,695 |163.98 |
|Chongqing |15,582.00 |1,880,223 |120.67 |
|TOTAL |2,204,865.91 |353,690,931 |160.41* |
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01210-2
Growth in agricultural demand, population, and the need to increase crop yields with limited usable arable land are evidence that the global market is experiencing steady growth. Market growth is further being boosted by governments and other activities by the private sector to support sustainable farming practices and rising technological capabilities in terms of nutrient efficient formulations. Moreover, precision agriculture and bio-based fertilizers have found significant development and thus shifting the industry status quo by safeguarding sustainability along with proficiency.
Farms across the world are intensifying their quest to stabilize supply of fertilizers as production is being scaled up to support food demands which are rising at high rates. In India, state- and company- wise supply scheme of April 2025 was issued earlier by the government through its Department of Fertilisers in order to ensure non-disruption in supply of nutrients to farmers, and actually there are 1.27 million liters of nano-DAP (liquid fertilizer) allotted to IFFCO.
It is also being promoted by public measures to practice balanced and environmentally friendly use of fertilizers. As part of PM-PRANAM (Programme for Restoration, Awareness Generation, Nourishment and Amelioration of Mother Earth), Indian states are provided a 50 per cent subsidy reimbursement of chemical fertilizer reduced as a result of use. There is also a 1,500 Indian rupees per metric ton Market Development Assistance (MDA) to promote organic fertilizers produced through the GOBARdhan program to increase sustainable options.
An innovation in the market in the U.S. is based on increasing sustainability and precision via technological solutions. Proper example, the American companies are creating polymer coated and controlled release fertilizers that will make better use of the nutrients avoiding leaching and producing greenhouse gases. There is also an increasing trend in integrating IoT-based soil monitoring systems with variable rate fertilizer applicators in facilitating precision farming practices.
Progress has been specially made in the Asia-Pacific region specifically in India and China regarding the production of biofertilizer with the aid of microbial consortia in enhancing the health of soils and crop resistance. There is also action to promote nano fertilizers-specifically nano-urea in India-which will hopefully be better at capturing nutrients, and in general reduce the amount of chemicals used on farmlands.
Fertilizer Market Report Attributes
Key Takeaway Details
Market Size & Growth
Base Year 2024
Market Size in 2024 USD 207.2 Billion
Forecast Period 2025 – 2034 CAGR 2.6%
Market Size in 2034 USD 268.2 Billion
Key Market Trends
Drivers Impact
Rising demand for food Drives increased fertilizer usage to boost crop yields and meet global food security needs
Growing demand for organic fertilizers Encourages innovation in bio-based products and supports sustainable farming practices
Emerging demand for water soluble fertilizers Promotes precision agriculture and efficient nutrient delivery, especially in controlled irrigation systems
Pitfalls & Challenges Impact
Lack of awareness about the optimum usage of fertilizers Leads to inefficient application, reduced crop productivity, and environmental degradation
Increasing uncertainties and significant policy focus towards the environment Pressures manufacturers to reformulate products and comply with stricter sustainability regulations, potentially increasing production costs
Opportunities: Impact
Rising adoption of precision agriculture and smart farming technologies Enhances targeted fertilizer application, reduces waste, and improves overall farm efficiency
Increasing demand for organic and bio-based fertilizers Supports sustainable agriculture and opens new market segments focused on eco-friendly farming practices
Market Leaders (2024)
Market Leaders
Wesfarmers
17%
Top Players
Wesfarmers
Yara International
IFFCO
Nutrien
CF Industries Holdings
Collective market share in 2024 is 57%
Competitive Edge
Wesfarmers integrates chemical manufacturing and distribution through WesCEF, focusing on supply chain efficiency and tailored product development for the Australian agricultural sector.
Yara International applies precision farming tools and proprietary catalyst technologies to reduce emissions and optimize nitrogen use, aligning with climate-smart agriculture goals.
IFFCO leverages its cooperative network of over 36,000 societies to ensure deep rural penetration and farmer engagement, while expanding into nano and organic fertilizer segments
Regional Insights
Largest Market Asia Pacific
Fastest Growing Market Middle East Africa
Emerging Country China, India, Germany, Brazil and UAE
Future Outlook
Advanced nutrient delivery systems and controlled-release technologies are expected to enable more efficient fertilizer application, reducing waste and improving crop productivity in precision agriculture.
Increasing focus on climate-resilient farming and soil health is likely to drive demand for bio-based and carbon-neutral fertilizers across both developed and emerging economies.
Regulatory pressures and environmental concerns may challenge the widespread use of synthetic fertilizers, pushing manufacturers to innovate with low-impact alternatives and circular production models.
*China Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Brief: (2025-08-22)
Phosphate Rock:
Northern production areas continue to be affected by environmental inspections, with localized supply contractions, while southern main production areas maintain stable operations. Phosphate fertilizer production maintains over 60% operating rates, forming rigid demand support for phosphate rock. Although the actual implementation of the second-phase phosphate fertilizer export quota remains to be observed, prices are expected to maintain a relatively firm stance in the short term.
Sulfur:
Yesterday, the port sulfur spot market continued its upward trend with sustained price increases. Reference quotes maintained around 2,560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. A major petrochemical enterprise’s winning bid of 2,441 yuan/ton provided some market support, combined with synchronized electronic trading gains, pushing spot market prices to new highs. However, spot trading volumes remained relatively limited. On the downstream demand side, most large terminal enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting relevant news from the US dollar market. Domestic sulfur resource prices remain generally stable. Today requires close attention to spot market trading dynamics.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday, the domestic sulfuric acid market saw localized adjustments. In Hunan market, maintenance at some production units of major provincial acid manufacturers affected regional output contraction, with market spot supply showing a tightening pattern. Demand remained robust, providing strong support for sulfuric acid consumption. Some acid enterprises in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia, experienced production cuts or maintenance, keeping market supply at low levels recently. Combined with major acid enterprises’ maintenance plans for next month, some acid enterprises raised prices. Currently, mainstream prices for 98% smelting acid in Hunan region are around 590-680 yuan/ton. In Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, 98% smelting acid factory prices are 620-800 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday, the domestic urea market showed overall weak-stable operation. Although export news continued to ferment, both futures and spot sentiment clearly cooled, with factories lacking price-supporting momentum. Some holders began showing increased low-selling sentiment, and the market showed signs of deadlock loosening. Considering current insufficient bullish support and short-term lack of factory order flow, market deadlock intensified.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday, the synthetic ammonia market remained mainly stable with individual rises and falls. Current ammonia market overall supply is abundant with no obvious demand improvement, but some regional ammonia plants experienced temporary failures and maintenance, improving shipments. Future ammonia market expected to operate with regional differentiation.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday, the ammonium chloride market operated quietly and stably. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continued just-in-time purchasing with low receiving intentions. Ammonium chloride enterprises received few new orders, mostly executing previous pending shipments. Supply-demand fundamentals showed little change, expecting short-term stable ammonium chloride market operation.
Potash Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic potassium chloride market source supply remained relatively tight with still limited available quantities. However, new order transactions at high price levels were not active. Currently, imported 62% white potash prices are mostly at 3,150-3,520 yuan/ton, with actual transaction prices mainly negotiated case by case. Potassium sulfate manufacturer facility operating rates remain continuously low, but shipment speeds are slow with limited transactions.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market overall maintained a wait-and-see trend. With new quota news emerging, industry players mostly awaited market developments. Raw material sulfur continued rising, but downstream demand still showed no obvious improvement. Expected to maintain consolidation operation in the short term.
Yesterday, the domestic diammonium phosphate market remained in deadlock observation. Enterprise factory prices remained mainly stable, with market wait-and-see sentiment dominating. After export policy news landing, market sentiment may improve. Short-term market maintains consolidation operation.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday, domestic compound fertilizer continued stable shipments. Export news impact on the market requires further follow-up, with main upstream raw material products likely maintaining stable with minor adjustments. Expected short-term compound fertilizer market to focus on autumn fertilizer shipping, with market trends continuing stable consolidation.
Industrial MAP:*
Yesterday, industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market trading was limited. Domestic 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate mainstream market average price referenced around 5,825 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations case by case. Upstream sulfur prices continued rising while downstream markets remained continuously weak. Market players operated cautiously with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Second-phase phosphate fertilizer export quota landed, with specific details still awaiting policy guidance. Expected short-term industrial ammonium market weak operation. Future market still needs attention to enterprise operations and raw material conditions.
-UREA PRICES ARE COMING UNDER PRESSURE WITH INCREASED SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT MARKETS DESPITE ANOTHER 2 MILLION MT UREA TENDER ANNOUNCED IN INDIA
-PROCESSED PHOSPHATE PRICES ARE HOLDING STEADY FOR NOW BUT INCREASED AVAILABILITY FROM CHINA MAY CHANGE THIS TO A MORE BEARISH TONE
-POTASH PRICES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BRAZIL DUE TO AFFORDABILITY AND LACK OF CREDIT
-THE AMMONIA MARKET IS AWAITING PRICE GUIDANCE FROM THE UPCOMING SEPTEMBER CONTRACT PRICE BETWEEN MOSAIC AND YARA
UREA
China is resuming exports, including to India. Although details have yet to be announced the general impression is that a 3rd quota has been issued on August 20th for the export of 700,000 MT with final customs date October 15th. This will bring the total exports for the year to 4.2 million MT. Floor prices are yet to be known but it is anticipated that the range will be between USD 470-480 PMT FOB main Chinese port. This compares to the price set for India exports in the previous tender at USD 490 PMT FOB for both prilled and granular urea.
Unsurprisingly, the reports out of China continue to pressure other major destination markets, and levels in the US and Brazil softened again today. Participants are also keenly watching the developments between Russia and Ukraine, with an eye on the impact to wider energy markets. Gas and crude futures largely trended higher through the day. Front-month gas futures at the Dutch TTF hub, listed on Ice, closed the day up by over 3pc at €32.21/MWh.
Prices of urea have not been supported even on the back of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) India announcing another prilled/granular urea tender which calls for 2 million MT with 1 mill MT to each of the coasts. closing 2 September at 14:00 hrs IST for shipment by 31 October. Offers should be valid until 18:00 hrs 10 September. The tender emerged sooner than most expected and only three days after Indian Potash Limited (IPL) issued letters of intent under its 4 August import tender that resulted in purchases of 2.075 MMT.
A granular urea tender held by Pupuk Indonesia at the end of last week resulted in the highest bids in the USD 470s FOB down from the USD 482.50 PMT FOB last done. Although no official details of the award have yet to be announced, with the floor price said to be USD 503 PMT FOB, it is expected that the urea tender will be scrapped.
Urea was largely indicated lower, with some pointing to equivalent levels in the $470s/t fob basis the bids in Indonesia on Monday. But suppliers are unwilling to entertain levels that low, pushing for prices at around $500/t fob.
KPIC of Iran is understood to have scrapped its tender to sell 30,000t of granular urea for shipment in the second half of September. The producer was asking for $435/t fob the least, but highest bids were indicated at $430/t fob. MIS has sold 30,000 t granular urea at $433/t FOB. The producer closed a tender 18 August having scrapped an earlier attempt to place the cargo where the highest bid came in at $432/t FOB. The official price was set at $435/t FOB this week.
Egypt urea prices to Europe remained stable on limited activity and demand. Total urea exports out of Damietta, Abu Qir and Adabiya in May-July this year were at 685,000t compared to around 1mn t exported in the same period last year, Argus estimates. This is mainly due to a drop in natural gas flows from Israel, and the corresponding halt in urea production in Egypt, following the heightened tensions between Israel and Iran in June.
Plants are still operating at an average of 80pc of full capacity. But the installation of several new LNG import terminals in the past month or so has left the outlook for urea production more stable. The country added two floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) last month, joining the one already operational terminal at Ain Sokhna. Egypt's state-owned Egas can also import via the newly-installed 174,000m³ Energos Force in Jordan's Aqaba, which arrived at the start of this month.
In other markets of interest offers in South Africa of Iranian and Chinese urea were heard at around $470-480/t cfr, with higher priced Russian and Middle Eastern origins at around $510/t cfr drawing little buy-side interest.
Black Sea latest indications for granular urea to regional markets were largely stable at around $440/t fob, while buy-side indications for deep-sea markets were around $450/t fob. Offers to Romania emerged in the mid $490s/t bulk cfr for duty-free material. A Russian Baltic supplier is in the process of selling over 10,000t of granular urea for loading next month, targeting a price in the $460s/t fob.
All eyes are on Brazil and when they will come into the market with full force. Granular urea was priced at $480-495/t cfr, with bids for non-Chinese product defining the low end and offers setting the high. Brazil has access to competitively priced Iranian products as well as substituting urea with caprolactam compacted ammonium sulphate.
In summary, the urea market in general is fairly inactive and the time leading up to the closing of the India tender will be most interesting with China finally playing a meaningful part. With China releasing additional quotes, global prices are expected to soften despite the huge volume India needs to secure.
PHOSPHATES
Global DAP/MAP extended a period of relative stability over recent weeks compared with the steep increases seen in 2025 thus far, as buyers appeared more comfortable for now while news of expanded export quotas from China softened sentiment slightly. China is rumoured to have issued an allocation for DAP and MAP exports with the total reportedly comprising around 550,000-600,000 MT DAP and around 100,000-150,000 MT MAP.
China exported 984,000 MT of DAP in July, a record high since October 2018, driven primarily by strong shipments to Ethiopia and some delayed cargoes from June. This has offset the fall in deliveries to India, which is typically a major outlet for Chinese DAP. Total DAP exports in July were up by 94pc from 506,000 MT a month earlier, and up by 92pc on the year from 512,000 MT. The rise is primarily attributed to 222,000 MT of DAP exports to Ethiopia, compared with 99,500t in June and none in the same period a year earlier.
China has raised its DAP exports to other markets in Asia compared with July last year, in lieu of shipments to India. Shipments to Bangladesh and Nepal posted the largest year-on-year increases in July, after Ethiopia, rising more than tenfold and sevenfold to 76,000 MT and 98,000 MT, respectively. Exports to Thailand increased by 73pc on the year to 139,000 MT. Meanwhile, shipments to Vietnam sit at 93,000t, up by 12pc from a year earlier. Volumes to Pakistan and Japan also picked up, with 86,000 MT and 57,000 MT of DAP shipped respectively, marking an 8pc and 52pc year-on-year increase.
Despite the export halt for DAP/MAP from China into May, the country’s overall DAP/MAP/TSP/SSP/NP/NPK exports in the first seven months of 2025 jumped 40% yr-on-yr to 7.73Mt from 5.54Mt. Brazil was the largest recipient of Chinese phosphate fertilisers, with the traded volume more than doubling to 3.69Mt from 1.76Mt in the same period 2024 and just 995,621t in Jan-July 2023. Volumes to India on the other hand slumped to 484,090t from as high as 1.92Mt in Jan-July 2023.
Chinese exports to India — once its main DAP outlet — fell to zero in July, from 88,000 MT in the same period a year earlier. Chinese producers are expected to resume DAP exports to India, after Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with India's external affairs minister S Jaishankar in New Delhi on 18 August, pledging to move forward in bilateral trade and economic co-operation.
Imports of MAP to Brazil have dropped significantly due to low demand and prices of MAP have dropped to around USD 740 PMT CFR. Brazil is suffering from reduced affordability and credit issues to farmers. SSP prices are suffering the same fate as MAP with heavy stock buildup from previous imports.
In India, no new DAP deals or tenders have been announced for the Indian markets this week with prices now stalled at around $810pt cfr for seven weeks.
Unconfirmed reports suggest as much as 300,000t DAP has so far been awarded at $874pt cfr in the 5 August Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) tender for 500,000t DAP. Bangladesh in addition to large buying by Ethiopia has helped increase the DAP price in the last few months supported by heavy buying by India. However, with the announcement of Chinese exports of DAP and MAP should help on more reduced prices.
A price ceiling may now be in sight as buyer resistance to high prices grows across the globe. Still, some further upside is possible over the coming weeks before declines begin within Q3 as supply improves and buyers become relatively more comfortable. Scarce supply is likely to limit price downside once the market direction reverses.
POTASH
Granular potash prices have modestly fallen in Brazil and the US, remaining stable elsewhere, though expectations of downward pressure are beginning to build across the market. The Brazilian MOP benchmark dropped $5/t this week to $355-360/t CFR, its lowest level since early May. Prices in the region had peaked at $370/t CFR in July and held in the $360- 370/t CFR range for about four weeks toward the end of the soybean season. Now, with the season fully wrapped up and demand weak, prices have begun to decline. Suppliers have kept offer levels firm and attempted to limit availability, with some reportedly sold out until October, but prices have still fallen around 2% from the peak. Affordability has also deteriorated, not only due to the earlier rise in MOP prices, but also as soybean and corn values continue to trend lower. With limited demand and soft fundamentals, prices are expected to keep easing.
Potash prices in Southeast Asia held steady at $360–383/t CFR amid weak demand, with limited offers and little movement expected in the short term. The market is anticipated to pick up in September, driven by seasonal demand ahead of the tender season. Strong palm oil prices have helped maintain stability, aiding in more favourable affordability compared with other regions. The granular MOP benchmark remained steady at $380-395/t CFR, but prices in Thailand could rise.
Potash prices are likely to remain flat or soften in the coming week, with attention focused on the Brazilian market, which is experiencing its first decline after months of strong gains.
AMMONIA
Ammonia prices on both sides of the Suez were for the most part steady this week, with the exception of a few marginal upticks in some regions, based on the latest supply-demand dynamics. All eyes are now on September's Tampa settlement, which should spell out the extent of the upside pressure set to emerge over the coming weeks. Prices look well insulated against any declines over the immediate term, though the upside may be more limited in some regions than others.
𝟮𝟯𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝘆𝗿𝗶𝗮
Last Wednesday, Tartous port broke its silence after months of disruption, resuming phosphate rock shipments. Two vessels were loaded simultaneously:
🔹 44,000 tons of phosphate bound for Romania
🔹 33,000 tons of phosphate heading east
This is part of a structured export plan that not only marks Tartous’ return as a strategic export hub, but also signals the revival of Syria’s phosphate industry after recent unrest. Since the political shifts, a total of 230,000 tons of phosphate have been exported from this port.
https://fertilizerfield.com/rfcl-urea-production-halt-deepens-fertilizer-shortage-in-telangana/?no_cache=1
Latest rumour doing the rounds in China:
The export quota for DAP has been newly increased by 800,000 tons.
*China Chemical Fertilizer Industry Chain Morning Report: (2025-08-21)
Phosphate Rock:
The domestic phosphate rock market continues its stable operating trend. In northern regions, environmental inspections have limited production at some mines, leading to slightly tight regional supply. Enterprises in major production areas like Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei maintain steady shipping schedules. Downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises operate at approximately 60% capacity, maintaining stable demand for phosphate rock. However, it’s worth noting that the monoammonium phosphate market has weak trading activity, and enterprise inventory pressure is gradually increasing, suggesting that the industry’s high operating rates may face downward pressure later. In the short term, the market will maintain a weak supply-demand balance.
Sulfur:
Yesterday’s port sulfur spot market lacked trading activity, with reference prices maintained around 2,540 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. Electronic trading platforms showed high-level volatility, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market with limited trading volume. Most customers traveled to Shanghai to attend the 2025 Asia-Pacific Phosphorus, Sulfur and Fertilizer Conference, resulting in limited business discussions. On the downstream demand side, most large terminal enterprises remain in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the end of the industry conference and related news from the USD market. Domestic sulfur resource prices showed overall stable trends. Today’s focus should be on guidance from the Shanghai industry conference on market direction and changes in actual spot market trading conditions.
Sulfuric Acid:
Yesterday’s domestic sulfuric acid market saw localized adjustments. In Inner Mongolia’s Bayannur region, some acid producers experienced production cuts or maintenance, keeping market supply at low levels. Combined with major acid producers’ maintenance plans for next month, prices increased by 30-50 yuan/ton. In Henan’s market, a medium-sized acid plant in Sanmenxia entered maintenance phase, reducing supply. Some tender prices showed slight increases. A major acid producer in Jiyuan also plans maintenance for some production units next month, intensifying the tight supply situation in the region and providing strong support for acid prices. Currently, 98% smelting acid ex-factory prices in Henan range around 520-600 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia’s Chifeng, 98% smelting acid ex-factory prices are 620-800 yuan/ton.
Urea:
Yesterday’s domestic urea market remained largely stable with minor movements. A few enterprises had decent order intake, but due to futures price drops, market trading sentiment became cautious again. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious. With the third batch of quotas released, the market will await changes in trading sentiment, with prices temporarily stable.
Synthetic Ammonia:
Yesterday’s synthetic ammonia market operated regionally. Overall market downward sentiment persists, but supply tightening due to equipment fluctuations in some regions and localized demand recovery boosted sentiment, leading to slight ammonia price increases. Future ammonia market is expected to see mainly localized rises and falls.
Ammonium Chloride:
Yesterday’s ammonium chloride market operated steadily. Recently, downstream compound fertilizer inventory has moved slowly, reducing purchase enthusiasm for ammonium chloride. Ammonium chloride enterprises received poor new orders, mainly executing previous pending shipments. Short-term demand is unlikely to increase, and the ammonium chloride market operates weakly and steadily.
Potash Fertilizer:
The domestic potash fertilizer market trend has been relatively flat recently. Although available inventory for sale is limited and some quotations are high, new order transactions at high levels are slightly slow, with insufficient new supply replenishment. Domestic potassium sulfate manufacturers basically continue previous quotations, but actual shipment conditions are slightly slow, with limited downstream factory purchase demand.
Phosphate Fertilizer:
Yesterday’s domestic monoammonium phosphate market maintained flat operation. Hubei 55% powder mainstream ex-factory prices were around 3,400-3,420 yuan/ton for actual negotiations. Downstream purchasing was not active, with short-term trends showing consolidation and wait-and-see attitudes.
Yesterday’s domestic diammonium phosphate market trading atmosphere remained light. Enterprise ex-factory prices showed no obvious fluctuations temporarily. Downstream operations continued mainly with small-batch, as-needed purchases. Overall trading activity remained at low levels, with the market continuing in a stalemate wait-and-see mode in the short term.
Compound Fertilizer:
Yesterday’s domestic compound fertilizer market continued stable trends. Among raw materials, nitrogen fertilizer and sulfuric acid prices showed fluctuations. Urea’s slight upward movement boosted some sentiment, and enterprise shipments are gradually improving. No obvious price adjustments occurred, maintaining temporary stability in the short term.
Industrial Monoammonium:*
Yesterday’s industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate market saw weak stable consolidation. Domestic 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate mainstream market average price referenced around 5,825 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations on a case-by-case basis. Market trading atmosphere continued weakness, with market prices maintaining weak stability. Wait-and-see attitudes in the market persisted. Short-term industrial ammonium market prices are expected to see narrow-range consolidation. Future developments still need attention to enterprise operations and raw material conditions.
#BRAZIL: Fertilizer Imports Hit Record High in July Amid Rising Prices
▪️Brazil recorded its highest monthly volume of fertilizer imports this year in July, with 4.79 mnt, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC). The figure represents a 15.6% increase compared to June and a 7.1% rise from July 2024, setting a new historical record for the month.
▪️ From January to July 2025, imports totaled 24.2 mnt —an 8.8% increase year-on-year—surpassing the previous record of 23.67 mnt set in 2022 by 2.2%.
▪️ #Russia remained Brazil’s top supplier during this period, accounting for 6.88 mnt (28.2% of total imports), up 18% from the same period in 2024. China ranked second, with 5.14 mnt (21.2%), a sharp 75.7% increase year-over-year. Canada came third with 3.1 mnt (12.8%), down 2.2%.
▪️ According to consultancy firm Datagro, geopolitical uncertainties—including conflict in the Middle East and escalating U.S. trade disputes—have influenced the market. The prospect of new tariffs on countries that maintain trade ties with Russia, Brazil among them, has heightened supply concerns and driven up international prices.
▪️ Producers moved to secure supply by bringing purchases forward, a trend reflected in July’s figures. Datagro warns that broader U.S. sanctions on Russian fertilizer imports could affect Latin American agriculture, impacting crops such as avocados in Mexico, coffee and fruit in Colombia, and soybeans and corn in Brazil.
▪️ With demand climbing, prices rose in July. The average CIF price of NP compounds reached USD 570.87 per ton, up 13.2% from June and 15.9% from July 2024. Urea rose 7% month-over-month to USD 427.37 per ton. MAP and KCl saw increases of between 5% and 6%. Year-on-year, urea prices have surged 23%, MAP 23.8%, KCl 14.5%, and ammonium sulfate 6.2%.
▪️ Datagro also notes growing concern among Brazilian importers of Russian fertilizers over potential U.S. retaliation, pushing companies to seek alternative suppliers in an already tight market. U.S.-based Mosaic warned that further trade disruptions among major exporters could add to price volatility.
▪️ From January to July, Paranaguá port (PR) led fertilizer imports with 6.34 mnt (26.2% of the total), followed by Santos (SP) with 3.91 m (16.2%); Rio Grande (RS), 3.86 m (16%); São Luís (MA), 2.31 m (9.5%); and Salvador (BA), 1.61 m (6.7%).
▪️ Looking ahead, demand is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, a seasonally high period for consumption in Brazil. Datagro projects that 2025 is on track to set a new record in both volume and value, though the exchange ratio may worsen for producers—particularly those who postponed purchases. Even so, the consultancy notes that farmers are unlikely to hold back on buying, as productivity losses from input shortages would have a more severe impact than higher costs.
China has issued the third round of export allocations on 20 August. Several producers confirmed receipt of this latest allocation and it is not restricted to producers in northwest China as reported by some sources earlier.
This third round allocation is widely expected to be confirmed at 700,000 t bringing the total export allocation figure to around 4.2 Mt.
Major exporters indicate that the restriction on shipments to India has been lifted.
The final custom clearance date remains 15 October.
LONDON (ICIS)– In China, looks like a third round of export quotas has approved for urea, with customs clearance due by 15 October. There are no details yet on the volume (700kt-1m tonnes expected), and how much can go to India and if the guidance price still stays at 490 FOB for India.